The 143rd Kentucky Derby is May 6th at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and a 70% chance of rain is in the forecast. Finding a good mudder in this group of 20 is nearly impossible. We thank Mike Battaglia, the odds maker at Churchill Downs, for giving us a morning line favorite at 4-1, Classic Empire, but come race day his odds will plummet from that enticing 4-1.
Mudders with potential:
WERNER Straight Ladder,H 16 ft.,Fiberglass, 7116-1Classic Empire (4-1): Broke his maiden on a wet surface at Churchill Downs in 2016. Veteran rider Julien Leparoux has been aboard for all of Classic Empire’s starts.
Tapwrit (20-1): Also broke his maiden over a wet surface. My concern with Tapwrit is that his head is not in the game. He’s worth at look in a superfecta at this price and on Derby Day.
WAVERLY Imperial Dress Antique Comforter Set, 96x92Waverly La Belle Champagne Toile Wedgewood bluee Fringed Toss PillowGormley (15-1): Also has a win on a wet surface in California, but a wet surface in Southern California is very different than a wet surface in Kentucky. The only advantage for Gormley is his veteran jockey, Victor Espinoza. Gormley races well in California but the ship to Kentucky is a mystery.
Battle of Midway (30-1): Another California shipper who broke his maiden on a wet Santa Anita surface. Finished second behind Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, has always been in the money in all of his four races. In a very scattered Derby, this horse deserves a look, especially at this price.
The Real Deals:
Classic Empire has been on my radar (and everyone else’s) Waverly Williamsburg Crown Craft Magnolia 6 PIECE Comforter SET SHEETS BED SKIRTsince he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s kind of a sassy horse. He’s been known to train when he feels like it, but certainly shows up for the race. With his veteran jockey, consistent money finishes on his resume, and can run on a wet surface, Classic Empire lands on the top of my list. Besides all that, he’s American Pharaoh’s little brother. So the pedigree is perfect.
West Ninth Vintage Industrial Multi Wall HookWESTPORT HOME LUXURY 800TC EGYPTIAN COTTON FULL QUEEN DUVET SET RETAIL 215
McCracken (5-1): McCracken finished third in his last race behind Practical Joke and Irap in the Bluegrass, but again, he didn’t need to win because he was already in with his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Until the Bluegrass, McCracken was undefeated, and veteran jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. has been with him from the first race.Wax-Based Sweeping Compound, Grit-Free, 50lbs, Box
Filling out the Superfecta:
Always Dreaming (5-1): Three wins in a row for Always Dreaming since veteran jock Johnny Velazquez took over, but only one graded stakes win, the Florida Derby, which he needed to get to Churchill Downs. A veteran rider, but little graded stakes experience and no races on a wet track. However, he’s been training well at Churchill and has put in some impressive bullet works since he arrived.
WESTWARD 31CE62 Emery Cloth,11x9 in.,Fine,PK50WESTWARD 5VPA6 Jobber Drill,17 64 In,Carbide,118DegWFX Utility 17 ft Aluminum Multi-Position Ladder
Thunder Snow (20-1):WCD 8 INCH TALL GLASS BOTTLE WITH LID 8INJAR This is the European entry. Entering the gates as a multiple graded stakes winner in Europe with extremely impressing speed figures, but has no American racing experience and has ran most of his races at sprint distances. The check mark on this horse goes to the connections and that the fields in Europe are bigger than they are here. The UAE Derby, which Thunder Snow won, had 15 entries. He will not be shy of the 20 in the gate.
State of Honor (30-1): I wanted to make this horse my superfecta filler, but he has one knock: His jockey, Jose Lezcano. Julien Leparoux has been on State of Honor for his last four races, which were stakes races, and in which State of Honor finished on the board all four times. But, Leparoux is also the jockey for Classic Empire. (What a choice?) This Mark Casse trainee gets a definite look and will be taking superfecta money come post time.
Practical Joke (20-1) was doing fine until he got into races with the other Derby contenders then he couldn’t seem to get around Gunnevera, Classic Empire or Irap. He has no wet surface races, doesn’t like the distance or the crowds.
- Safari Quilted Bedspread & Pillow Shams Set, Rainbow Birthday Print
- YVES DELORME France Bamboo King Duvet + 2 Euro Shams
- ILIFE V5S Pro Smart Cleaning Robot Robotic Vacuum Cleaner Dry Wet Mopping US
- Stapelboxen Werkzeugwand Schüttenregal Lagersystem Lagerregal 84 tlg. SET
- `.Extra Depth 3 PCs Fitted Set 1000 Thread Count Pima Cotton Taupe Solid
- Edge Eyewear TSDK216-G2 Khor G2 Polarized Smoke Lens Safety Glasses 2x New
- TWIN SHEET SET SKULL & BONES HALLOWEEN DOGS IN PUMPKINS COSTUMES DACHSHUND NWT
- All Season Down Alternative Reversible Blanket Twin Twin XL-Grey
- BURLAP NATURAL FRINGED QUEEN BED SKIRT TAYLORED FRINGED HEM 16 DROP SOFT COTTON
- LSA International 30 cm Terrace Storm Lantern, Clear
- Threshold Sweater Knit Blanket Twin Coral View
- 5pc. Robert Sorby HS Woodturning Tool Set
- Calculated Industries Air Shim Inflatable Pry Bar and Leveling Tool; 300 L
- Eye Glass Repair Kit 60pc Disp,No 8082-133L, Toolbasix,PK60
- Kanejun Taizo Mitsukawa work Hosohaba double-edged saw 180MM
- MOKUBA PIN PUNCH SET 8 PCS E14-8 From Japan
- Ridgid E-110 Hex Pipe Plumbing Offset Wrench Hard To Reach Wide Jaw Tool New
- Timing Chain Splitting Fitting Tool Kit -- Laser Part No 6740 New
- Wera - Kompakt Vario Set of 7
- 3D Strom Gras 791 Stair Risers Dekoration Fototapete Vinyl Aufkleber Tapete DE
- 3D color Fish Group Sea 732 Floor WallPaper Murals Wall Print Decal AJ WALLPAPER
- 3D Mountain Village 743 Risers Decoration Photo Mural Vinyl Decal Wallpaper CA
- Linear MCS302210 300MHz Gate Safety Edge Transmitter, 109950 302850 Compatible
- Rest Room Gender - Mens - Male Devil - Demon Incubus- Vinyl Wall Decal
- 3D Potala Palace 4647 Unframed Print Wall Paper Decal Wall Deco Indoor AJ Wall
- 3D Snowman Deer 51 Bed Pillowcases Quilt Duvet Cover Set Single Queen King AU
- Tropical Giraffe Cactus Print Duvet Cover Set Reversible Queen King Bedding Set
- Coloured Single Fitted Fleece Bed Sheet Mattress Cover Coverlet Bedding 1.52M
- NEW Homer Simpson Santa Figure Dances Talks Sings Gemmy Animated - 2005
- Aufkleber Fenster Schein Auge Deko Relax Ref 2571 (10 Größe)
- 3 Punch Studio Flap Rectangle Flip Top Nesting Boxes Merry Christmas Deer Box
- Claus Porto purplene - Lavender Soy Blend Candle
- Hobgood 1-Step Plastic Molded Folding Step Stool with 300 lb. Load Capacity bluee
- Neutral Shelf Liner in Clear [ID 3517347]
- Small Seagrass Storage Baskets Set 2 Piece Beige Woven Wire Frame Home Organizer
- 1 RALPH LAUREN Suite Cream Paisley STANDARD SHAM NEW RARE